With the recent announcement of Michael Bloomberg’s and President Trump’s Super Bowl ad buys, one has to wonder whether this is a strategic national media investment or an expensive vanity media buy.
While a Super Bowl spot for the Bloomberg campaign is merely a rounding error in the media budget, a similar buy on behalf of the Trump campaign seems to be more about Trump’s ego than smart strategy. The Trump campaign’s purchase on the heels of the Bloomberg Super Bowl ad buy announcement appears to be little more than a “keeping up with the Joneses” move.
A national buy in the Super Bowl is not a smart strategy for Trump who needs to rebuild his lead among likely voters in the key battleground states he won in 2016. As recent polls suggest, Trump’s leads have evaporated in critical swing states battered by Trump’s trade wars, declines in manufacturing jobs, and continued attacks on the Affordable Care Act (ACA) as the GOP seeks to roll back healthcare, limit the expansion of Medicare in key states and cut public aid for food stamps—kitchen table issues that disproportionately effect many core Trump voters.
More critically this expensive media buy ensures that there will be less investment available for down ticket Republican party races particularly in tightly contested Senate seats for incumbents in Arizona, Ohio, Kentucky, South Carolina, Colorado and Maine. Trump in recent days has sought to influence GOP Senators support during his upcoming Impeachment Trial and used the enticement of campaign finance donations and media support to entice wavering Senators to publicly voice support for him.
It is clear that Bloomberg, with his intention to invest up to half a billion in the 2020 election cycle can easily outspend and outflank both Trump and the GOP, putting them on the defensive. Bloomberg has committed that even if he is not the Democratic nominee, he will continue to provide financial support throughout this election cycle which will provide much needed infusions across close races, mitigating any GOP incumbency advantages.
As to whether a Super Bowl buy is smart ultimately comes down to who wins the messaging war. In this Super Bowl match-up, Bloomberg has the opportunity to draw a stark point of differentiation between his record and the President’s. To date, Bloomberg’s creative has specifically targeted Trump’s failing record on healthcare and his own successful track record expanding healthcare while he was Mayor of New York City. Whether or not the expenditure is a sound strategy for Trump given the irony of him paying $10 million for an NFL advert a year after his prolonged attacks on Colin Kaepernick— well, we’ll just have to wait until the Big Game to see.
Barbara Kittridge is Founder / Partner at Motive LLC, an integrated political agency that brings modern marketing techniques to the political and non-profit worlds.